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Updated , 2008...
(in the wake of the fantastic Golden Globes
Noms)
As you might expect, Oscar season is a
volatile and hard to predict roller coaster
of front-runners and dark-horses.
However, in this regularly updated column, I
will attempt to keep track of all the
information and give you the inside track on
who will be taking home the little gold men
on February 22nd, 2009 at the Kodak Theatre
in Hollywood.
So let's get started
with the big one...
Best Picture Nominees
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"Revolutionary Road" |
"Benjamin Button" |
"Slumdog Millionaire" |
"Doubt" |
"Milk" |
|
I have been sure
about this nomination from the
day the film was announced.
BOOK IT!!! |
It
is getting nominated for almost
everything and making tons of
critics top ten lists. |
I was on the
early on this bandwagon. I
am still very high on a late
push to win it all. |
The Globes snub hurts, but I
just think it will sneak in on
the backs of Streep and Hoffman. |
Drops to the 5th
spot with 4 other films hot on
its heels for a nom. Will
it have the legs? |
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THE WINNER |
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THE DARK HORSE |
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Other Contenders |
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"Frost/Nixon" |
-
I am really torn on this one --
"Milk", "The Reader" or
"Frost/Nixon"??? |
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"The Reader" |
-
The love from the Golden Globes
is a huge boost. Gaining
momentum!!! |
|
"In Bruges" |
-
I couldn't be more thrilled at
the Golden Globe nomination.
Go Bruges!!! |
|
"The
Wrestler" |
-
Rourke may very well be rewarded... the
film will just miss out on a
nom. |
|
"Rachel
Getting Married"
|
-
Probably too small to be
noticed. Anne Hathaway
will be the nod. |
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"Defiance" |
-
I just don't know if it will
make a big enough splash. |
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"Gran
Torino" |
-
It is hard to bet against the
voter popularity of Clint
Eastwood. |
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"Australia" |
- Luhrman's epic with Kidman and Jackman seems
like Oscar material. |
|
"Burn
After Reading" |
-
Too silly to be seriously
considered. Although,
Oscar loves the Coens. |
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"Changeling" |
-
Quite simply, the reviews were
not good enough to generate
momentum. |
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"Wall-E" |
-
Nope -- I don't buy it. I
think it will end up getting the
Animation win. |
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"Synecdoche, NY" |
-
Ultimately, Charlie Kaufman's
bizarre film may be too strange. |
|
"The Dark
Knight" |
-
I loved the Globes snub! I
never had it predicted in the
Top 5 for Oscar. |
Best Actress Nominees
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Kate Winslet
"Revolutionary Road" |
Anne Hathaway
"Rachel Getting Married" |
Cate Blanchett
"Benjamin Button" |
Meryl Streep
"Doubt" |
Michelle Williams
"Wendy & Lucy" |
|
Four previous
noms... Universal praise from
critics and public alike. It's
finally her time. |
The momentum is all going Anne's
way. If she nabs the
Golden Globe -- Oscar is next. |
Blanchett is an
Academy darling, so this is
almost a lock. But no win
for this role. |
Her reputation virtually assures
her a nod... but she's won
before and it is time for Kate
to win. |
I was correct
about Marion Cotillard months
before the noms. Williams
could surprise! |
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THE WINNER |
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THE DARK HORSE |
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Other Contenders |
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Kristin Scott
Thomas |
-
"I've Loved You So Long" needs a
good ad campaign for this one. |
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Angelina Jolie |
-
"The Changeling" was not quite
good enough to earn the
nomination. |
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Keira
Knightley |
-
"The Duchess" was great.
Keira will win one very soon. |
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Nicole Kidman
|
-
"Australia" will garner multiple
nods... but Nicole has been
there before. |
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Kate
Beckinsale |
-
"Nothing But the Truth" got
her a BFCA nod... but not Oscar. |
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Kate
Beckinsale |
-
"Snow Angels" wasn't seen by
enough people. But Kate
deserves a nod. |
Best Actor Nominees
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Mickey Rourke
"The Wrestler" |
Sean Penn
"Milk" |
Brad Pitt
"Benjamin Button" |
Leonardo DiCaprio
"Revolutionary Road" |
Richard Jenkins
"The Visitor" |
|
After seeing the
trailer, I am convinced he will
at least get nominated. |
The nomination is a stone cold
lock -- I just think he'll fall
short. |
Brad seems to have earned his
due as a great actor. |
This film is going
to garner many of the big wins.
Leo has a shot. |
Early buzz was
electric. I think the buzz
will return in time. |
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THE WINNER |
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THE DARK HORSE |
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Other Contenders |
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Frank Langella |
-
"Frost/Nixon" -- I
think his Dick Nixon gets shut
out last minute. |
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Clint Eastwood |
-
The NBR win was a surprise in my
book. Will the buzz fade? |
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Benicio Del
Toro |
-
Will "Che" be released in time?
If so, pencil Del Toro in! |
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Ralph Fiennes
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"The Reader" -- He is one of the
great talents of our time. |
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Jared Leto
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"Chapter 27" -- The film was not
received as well as it needed to
be. |
Best Supporting Actress Nominees
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Penelope Cruz
"Vicky Cristina Barcelona" |
Kate Winslet
"The Reader" |
Amy Adams
"Doubt" |
Marisa Tomei
"The Wrestler" |
Freida Pinto
"Slumdog Millionaire" |
|
The major awards
are all including Cruz. Is
the film well received enough
for her to win? |
It certainly is
possible that she will win both
Best Actress and Best Supporting
Actress. |
I
think Amy is a new Academy
darling. "Doubt"
is very strong in acting categories. |
The film may just be too small
for her to garner enough steam
to close this race out. |
There is almost
always one total unknown in this
category. Here is this
year's choice. |
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THE WINNER |
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THE DARK HORSE |
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Other Contenders |
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Amanda
Seyfried
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"Mamma Mia" -- Tremendous
talent... but too "light" for
the Academy |
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Viola Davis |
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"Doubt" -- Her role may be too
small to count. |
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Rosemarie
DeWitt |
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"Rachel Getting Married" -- Is
she a big enough name? |
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Taraji P
Henson |
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"Benjamin Button" -- Her role
may be too small to count. |
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Ellen Page |
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"Smart People" -- Perhaps too
similar to the recent "Juno" |
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Carice Van
Houten |
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"Valkyrie" -- She deserved a
nomination last year for "Black
Book". |
Best Supporting Actor Nominees
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Josh Brolin
"Milk" |
Michael Sheen
""Frost/Nixon" |
Philip S. Hoffman
"Doubt" |
Heath Ledger
"The Dark Knight" |
Michael Shannon
"Revolutionary Road" |
|
He has been on a
fantastic roll with his roles
lately. This will be
another reward. |
This is a tricky and subtle role
that may garner some late buzz
from the voters. |
Quite simply, he
is the best there is. You
know it. I know it.
The Academy knows it. |
The buzz is wearing off a
little. He will still get
nominated, but he is no longer
going to win. |
Sometimes a film
just steamrolls the other films.
If that happens, look for this
win. |
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THE WINNER |
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THE DARK HORSE |
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Other Contenders |
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Ralph Fiennes
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"The Duchess" -- He will likely
have more support for "The
Reader". |
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Robert Downey
Jr |
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"Tropic Thunder" -- Too silly to
be included? Not for the
Globes! |
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Tom Cruise |
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"Tropic Thunder" -- Too silly to
be included? Not for the
Globes! |
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Thomas Haden
Church |
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"Smart People" -- Will probably
be overlooked this year. |
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Dev Patel |
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"Slumdog Millionaire" -- This
film has a chance to be the
shocker! |
©
Written by TC Candler
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